“Declining birth rates are also alarming in our country…” The issue that President Erdoğan draws attention to with this sentence is actually a global problem… By 2050, 97% of the world’s countries will be below the population replacement threshold of 2.1. According to experts, countries can solve this problem in two ways: “making the population healthier and providing longer employment, or massive skilled migration…”
Fertility rates are declining in Turkey, as in the rest of the world. An average of 2.1 children per woman is considered the population replacement threshold worldwide. According to the United Nations, this number has fallen to 1.9 in Turkey and to 1.5 according to TÜİK. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan brought this crisis to the national agenda by saying, “Declining birth rates are alarming in our country,” and instructed his staff to work on new supports for mothers.
Suggestions such as “increasing maternity leave to one year” and “gradual state support for the second and third child” are being discussed. Falling rates are a common concern around the world. According to a study by experts at the University of Washington, published in the renowned Lancet journal, 97 percent of the world’s countries will face the problem of “inability to replenish their population” by 2050. The global fertility rate, which was 2.42 in 2021, will fall to 1.68 in 2050 and 1.57 in 2100. This rate is expected to fall to 1.44 in Western Europe and 1.19 in Eastern Europe in 2050.
One of the most striking countries in Europe is the United Kingdom. The birth rate per woman in England and Wales fell from 1.55 children in 2021 to 1.49 children in 2022. Scotland and Northern Ireland have a similar picture. The USA is also alarming. The rate, which was 3.65 in 1960, fell to a record low of 1.62 last year. In a report titled “How should countries cope with falling birth rates?”, BBC Television pointed out that there are two main ways for a country to cope with a falling birth rate: “The population needs to be healthier and employed for longer, or there needs to be large-scale immigration.”
Singapore aims to be a model country
The Southeast Asian country of Singapore, with a rate of 1.1, is second to last in the “world fertility list” where Turkey ranks 116th… It ranks 202nd, one above South Korea… According to British experts, “countries should have a healthy population” and “extend the working age”. In this way, women should be able to give birth without worrying about whether they will be able to return to working life during the fertile period.
On this point, the BBC drew attention to the efforts of Singapore, with a population of 5.6 million: “The retirement age in the country is 63 today. They will raise it to 64 in 2026 and 65 in 2030. The next target is 70. Companies in the country are encouraged to hire older people.” Prof. Angelique Chan, head of the country’s Aging Research Center, said: “The government is working on projects such as ‘one doctor for every citizen’. Citizens will know that their health is being monitored and will continue to work. The country spends a lot of money. That’s why we have the healthiest population and give people the opportunity to work in old age.”
Oxford University Professor Sarah Harper:
What is happening is part of a demographic transition. The scale of the future problem is huge. For a country to increase or maintain its population, it needs an average birth rate of 2.1 children per woman. In fact, two-thirds of the world’s countries now have birth rates below the replacement rate. Japan is low, China is low, South Korea is the lowest in the world.
“The number of Muslim immigrants in Europe is increasing”
The second issue that the British experts who spoke to the BBC drew attention to is the issue of “qualified migration”… At this point, the recent interview of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stands out: “The goal is to bring 1 million migrants to Europe annually. A population change is taking place in Europe; while the white European population is decreasing, the number of Muslim immigrants is radically increasing.”
(world newspaper)
