The year-end dollar exchange rate expectation of market participants, which was 38.78 TRY in the previous survey period, became 37.75 TRY in this month’s survey period.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) shared the results of the Market Participant Survey for June 2024. According to the results obtained from the responses of 68 participants consisting of real sector and financial sector representatives, the current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation of the participants was 43.52 percent in this survey period, while it was 43.64 percent in the previous survey period. The 12-month-ahead CPI expectation was 33.21 percent in the previous survey period, while it was 31.79 percent in this survey period. 24-month-ahead CPI expectations were realized as 21.33 percent and 20.33 percent in the same survey periods, respectively.
12-month-ahead inflation expectations
In the June 2024 survey period, when the probability forecasts of the participants for the next 12 months were evaluated, it was predicted that the CPI would increase between 26.00 – 29.99 percent with 31.75 percent probability, between 30.00 – 33.99 percent with 34.89 percent probability and between 34.00 – 37.99 percent with 21.57 percent probability.
According to the evaluation based on point estimates in the same survey period, 27.42 percent of the participants’ expectations were in the range of 26.00 – 29.99 percent, 35.48 percent in the range of 30.00 – 33.99 percent, 24.19 percent in the range of 34.00 – 37.99 percent.
24-month-ahead inflation expectations
In the June 2024 survey period, when the probability forecasts of the participants for 24 months ahead were evaluated, it was predicted that the CPI would increase between 15.00 – 18.99 percent with 21.93 percent probability, between 19.00 – 22.99 percent with 49.06 percent probability and between 23.00 – 26.99 percent with 17.33 percent probability.
When 24-month-ahead CPI inflation expectations were evaluated, it was observed that 22.81 percent of the participants’ expectations were in the range of 15.00 – 18.99 percent, 50.88 percent in the range of 19.00 – 22.99 percent, and 14.04 percent in the range of 23.00 – 26.99 percent.
Interest rate expectations
Participants’ expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was 50.77 percent in this survey period, while it was 51.51 percent in the previous survey period. The CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the current month-end was realized as 50.00 percent in this survey period as in the previous survey period.
Exchange rate expectations
The year-end exchange rate (USD/TRY) expectation of the participants for the current year was 37.75 TRY, which was 38.78 TRY in the previous survey period. 12-month-ahead exchange rate expectation was realized as 41.41 TRY in the current survey period, while it was 41.80 TRY in the previous survey period.
GDP growth expectations
Participants’ GDP growth expectations for 2024 and 2025 were realized as 3.3 and 3.7 percent, respectively, in this survey period as in the previous survey period.
